College football odds: No. 10 Clemson at No. 4 Florida State

It’s only Week 4 of the college football season, but the ACC’s Atlantic Division title very well could be on the line Saturday night as Florida State hosts Clemson in a Top-10 matchup. The Noles are 14-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.

Clemson has followed a hard-fought season-opening win over Clemson with easy wins over Ball State and Furman. Last week in a 41-7 win against Furman, star receiver Sammy Watkins made his season debut after serving a two-game suspension. He had a 58-yard touchdown run and finished Watkins finished with four catches for 52 yards and 119 all-purpose yards as Clemson won its 30th straight game over the Paladins. Tajh Boyd threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns and Andre Ellington had a pair of rushing TDs for the second straight game.

FSU has looked statistically like the nation’s top team by winning its first three games by a combined 176-3: FSU leads the nation in points per game allowed and is second in scoring. But the schedule has been incredibly weak. Wake Forest was the only FBS team the Seminoles have played and FSU had no trouble last week with a 52-0 rout.

A year after he suffered a broken back during a loss at Wake Forest that nearly ended his playing career, FSU running back Chris Thompson ran for 197 yards and two scores on nine carries. Thompson scored on runs of 74 and 80 yards on successive first-half carries that sparked Florida State to a 38-0 halftime lead.

FSU’s defense has now held 11 straight opponents to under 20 points. That’s the longest streak by an ACC team since Virginia Tech had a span of 12 games between the 2004-05 seasons. In the last nine home ACC games under Jimbo Fisher and defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, FSU has allowed just one team to score more than 20 points in Doak Campbell Stadium .

Even with the loss of first-team All-ACC defensive end Brandon Jenkins to a season-ending injury, the Seminoles’ D-line has barely missed a beat. It has recorded 11 sacks on the season, 6.5 of those by junior Bjoern Werner, who leads the nation in that category.

Florida State has a 17-8 advantage in the series with Clemson that  dates to 1970, a 38-13 Florida State win in Tallahassee.  But Clemson has won six of the last nine, including each of the last five games played at Clemson. The Tigers have won just once in Tallahassee since the Seminoles joined the ACC for  the 1992 season.  That came in 2006. Each of the last three years the winner of the Clemson vs. Florida State game has gone on to win the Atlantic Division Championship. Last year, Clemson won 36-30 as Watkins had seven catches for 141 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

WagerWeb.com trends: Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Florida State. Home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Florida State.

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